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CITIC Securities: It is expected that the scale of personal pension will grow steadily. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, on December 12, 2024, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and other departments jointly issued the Notice on the Full Implementation of Personal Pension System, and the personal pension system will be promoted to the whole country on December 15, with emphasis on product supply and collection conditions optimized. In terms of individual pension funds, 85 index funds were added. At present, the total number of personal pension products is 941, and the performance of most products is relatively stable. The personal pension system shoulders the important mission of perfecting the multi-level and multi-pillar pension insurance system and doing a good job in pension finance. It is expected that with the continuous optimization of system design, continuous enrichment of product supply and continuous improvement of service level, the scale of personal pension is expected to grow steadily, which will also help to better play the wealth management function of the capital market and build a sound policy system of "long money and long investment".Soochow securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December. According to the soochow securities Research Report, the CPI of the United States rebounded to +2.75% in November as scheduled, and the CPI that did not exceed expectations cleared the last obstacle for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. In the short term, the combination of low base and high viscosity means that CPI is expected to continue to rebound to +2.8% in December. In the medium term, Trump is expected to drive out illegal immigrants on the first day after taking office, which will aggravate the risk of stagflation in the labor market. However, the intensification of wage inflation stickiness may be concealed by the downward movement of non-agricultural centers in the same period, the expectation of increasing oil prices and the high base in the first half of 2025. The market's concern about "stagnation" may provide room for the Fed to cut interest rates smoothly in the first half of 2025. However, in the second half of 2025, the cumulative interest rate cuts will give support to the economy, the persistence of inflation stickiness and the landing of Trump's tax reduction policy will force the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December, 25bps in March and June next year, and stop cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. The end point of the policy interest rate in 2025 is [3.75,4.0]%.Thirteen companies disclosed the progress of repurchase, among which Green Energy Huichong and Ruike had the highest amount of laser repurchase plans. On December 13th, a total of 13 companies issued announcements on stock repurchase. Among them, two companies disclosed the stock repurchase plan for the first time, four companies disclosed the progress of the implementation of stock repurchase, and seven companies have completed the implementation of the repurchase plan. Judging from the initial disclosure of the repurchase plan, Green Energy Huichong and Ruike Laser have the highest amount of repurchase plans, with the planned repurchase not exceeding 1.115 million yuan and 487,900 yuan respectively. Judging from the implementation progress of repurchase, Yuanli Technology, Jiuli Special Materials and Jack have the highest share repurchase amounts, with 33.1077 million yuan, 30.9807 million yuan and 3.2323 million yuan respectively. Judging from the completed repurchase, a total of one company repurchased more than 10 million on that day. Aerospace Rainbow, Aerospace Rainbow and Guanshi Technology have completed the highest repurchase amount, with 33.2989 million yuan, 2.479 million yuan and 2.1642 million yuan respectively.

CITIC Jiantou: The domestic cross-border e-commerce industrial chain has been gradually improved. CITIC Jiantou said that from 2010 to 2014, China's cross-border e-commerce entered a stage of rapid development. With the rise of mobile Internet infrastructure and the penetration rate of overseas cross-border e-commerce giants in the Mainland, the supporting facilities of the industrial chain have been gradually improved, subdivided and specialized, relevant policies have continued to exert their strength, and the customs supervision model has gradually become clear; Cross-border e-commerce industry chain is long, and there are relatively many hidden risk points because it involves cross-border. The cost structure of each link is mainly different due to the differences in participation roles, platform models, product types, warehousing and logistics structures, etc. Overall, the current cost structure is relatively stable, but there is also a large room for optimization. The degree of specialization and refinement of service providers will be improved, and the overall control, collaboration and empowerment of the industry chain and the refined arrangement led by big data and industry cognition will become one of the core competitiveness.Bank of Japan: The index of small non-manufacturers rose for the second consecutive quarter, reaching the highest level since August 1991.CITIC Jiantou: The domestic cross-border e-commerce industrial chain has been gradually improved. CITIC Jiantou said that from 2010 to 2014, China's cross-border e-commerce entered a stage of rapid development. With the rise of mobile Internet infrastructure and the penetration rate of overseas cross-border e-commerce giants in the Mainland, the supporting facilities of the industrial chain have been gradually improved, subdivided and specialized, relevant policies have continued to exert their strength, and the customs supervision model has gradually become clear; Cross-border e-commerce industry chain is long, and there are relatively many hidden risk points because it involves cross-border. The cost structure of each link is mainly different due to the differences in participation roles, platform models, product types, warehousing and logistics structures, etc. Overall, the current cost structure is relatively stable, but there is also a large room for optimization. The degree of specialization and refinement of service providers will be improved, and the overall control, collaboration and empowerment of the industry chain and the refined arrangement led by big data and industry cognition will become one of the core competitiveness.

"Shanghai housing subsidy is 300,000 yuan" and "down payment is 20,000 yuan to buy 1.8 million hardcover existing houses"? Rumor has come. Recently, there have been a number of housing advertisements on the short video platform. The agent who released the housing claimed that he could receive the "housing subsidy" when buying a house in Shanghai, with the amount ranging from 200,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan. An intermediary declared: "Shanghai Songjiang New Town has a total price of 760,000 yuan and a housing subsidy of 250,000 yuan." "After receiving the subsidy, you can buy a 78-square-meter house with a down payment of 50,000 yuan." There is also an intermediary who claims: "The minimum payment can be only 20,000 yuan, and you can buy a finely decorated existing house with a total price of 1.8 million yuan." The reporter consulted a number of intermediaries and learned that the so-called "purchase subsidies" appearing in short videos are not government subsidies, but gimmicks. When the house-watchers consult subsidies on the spot, different intermediaries will have different calibers. Usually, there are three routines-one is to raise the price first and then lower the price. Second, the so-called "subsidy" is actually that developers lend money to buyers to pay down payment, and buyers have to pay interest. Third, the commission returned by the intermediary to the buyers is packaged as a "subsidy". (Shanghai rumor platform)Japan's short-term survey index of large-scale manufacturing industry in December reported 14, with an estimated 13.CITIC Securities: It is expected that the global semiconductor and hardware fundamentals will resume their upward trend from the second quarter of next year. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the global semiconductor and hardware fundamentals are expected to remain weak from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, and will resume their upward trend from the second quarter of 2025. Similar to 2024, GenAI is expected to continue to be the core driving force, but industrial opportunities are expected to continue to spread around NVIDIA. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the recovery progress of IT expenditure of European and American enterprises after the US election, the pull of end-side AI and windows10 EOL on consumer electronics and bulk storage chips, and the recovery process of automobile and industrial sectors at the bottom of the cycle. Tariff and trade policies, US macro and inflation data, and GenAI technology progress are expected to continue to be the core influencing variables of the industry. At the sub-sector level, our preference order is: advanced process, AI network (Ethernet equipment and high-speed interface), AI computing chip (ASIC, commercial GPU), AI server, enterprise IT equipment (network equipment, high-end storage, general server), consumer electronics (PC, mobile phone), analog chip, semiconductor equipment, bulk storage chip, mature process and so on.